Keeping in sync with past projections (published in September 2023 on Expedition TV), the H5N1 Avian Influenza did reach South Georgia Island within a month. The virus was first detected close to a fortnight ago at SGI’s westernmost Bird Island on 23-October-2023.
Based on data analysis, the spike is spreading rapidly towards the South and West of South Georgia Island.
What this means for tourists and Antarctica cruise passengers?
No expedition landings at all sites on South Georgia Island; bringing an immediate halt of landed cruise tourism is the region and its periphery.
The likelihood of zodiac cruises (though feasible), runs with risk because there is a likelihood of H5N1 Avian Influenza virus-infected birds landing on expedition cruise ships. But given the operational expertise of seasoned tour operators, I’m sure this would be mitigated to the best ability.
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Below I have outlined the actual timeline of H5N1 spread on South Georgia Island and the species infected as of today, in the following charts and chronology:
23-October-2023 – Bird Island Research Station
Brown Skua was confirmed infected with highly pathogenic Avian Influenza at Bird Island research station. Bird Island is home to 50,000 breeding pairs of penguins and 65,000 pairs of fur seals and is located west of Church Bay and Right Whale Bay (known for large colonies of King Penguins, Elephant Seals, and Fur Seals).
25-October-2023 – Hound Bay
Kelp Gull and Brown Skua are suspected with H5N1 virus infection at Hound Bay, which is geographically situated between Godthul and St. Andrew’s Bay (which has over 150,000 birds).
27-October-2023 – Royal Bay
Elephant Seal, Brown Skua, and Kelp Gull are suspected with H5N1 Avian Influenza virus infection at Royal Bay, which is a breeding ground for King Penguins, Gentoo Penguins, and Blue-eyed Cormorants.
29-October-2023 – Cumberland West Bay
Giant Petrel, Kelp Gull, and Brown Skua are suspected with highly pathogenic H5N1 Avian Influenza virus infection at Cumberland West Bay, which is topographically just a mountain range across from Grytviken (a former whaling station).
What’s next for expedition cruising in the Antarctic Peninsula?
The first-half of the season in the Antarctic Peninsula would be early detection phase. I will publish another report, once I gather more data and analyze them.
Following is my Expedition TV video-report from September 2023, forecasting the H5N1 Avian Influenza spread in Antarctica, Falklands, and South Georgia Island.